Iraq's Historic Debate

Richard Zielinski

After four years of war, American public opinion had turned against the President. The casualty numbers were traumatic and there developed a strong sentiment that the conflict was un-winnable. Military recruitment was becoming more difficult and many people wondered what kind of insurgency would emerge even if victory was attainable. Politicians calling for an end to the war were growing bolder everyday. President Lincoln himself observed, “This morning, as for some days past, it seems exceedingly probable that this Administration will not be re-elected.”

Indeed it is hard to overstate the massive resistance to the war that existed during the long summer of 1864. Eight months later, when the conflict finally ended, more than 650,000 soldiers had lost their lives in America’s Civil War. It was 2% of the population, and if we compare that with our population today, it would be like losing 5.5 million young men.

In retrospect it is astonishing to see how President Lincoln’s convictions and resolve held up that troubling summer. No other U.S President has ever had to endure the amount and intensity of criticism that Abraham Lincoln did during his administration. Yet many historians now consider him to be the greatest leader this young country has ever seen.

Today the new vogue critic on the war on terrorism is to compare the current situation in Iraq to the Vietnam conflict of the 1960s-70s. John Mueller’s new article The Iraq Syndrome argues that the war in Iraq parallels our experience Vietnam. In the article he shows how public support for the Iraq conflict has dissipated more rapidly than it did in Vietnam, “and if history is any indication, there is little the Bush administration can do to reverse the decline.” Jonathan Rauch, a Brookings guest scholar, believes a Vietnam style pullout is already underway. “President Bush may not know it yet – or, then again, he may – but in Iraq he is about to do a Nixon. Psychologically and politically, the withdrawal phase has already begun. Militarily, the pullback will start within weeks, or at most months, of the Dec. 15 Iraqi parliamentary elections . . . the evolving structure of public opinion about Iraq is making the current war effort there unsustainable.” In the end, Mueller and Rauch may be right and we will soon leave Iraq as the country descends into chaos.

But maybe not.

History also shows us that even slight changes in events can modify political realities and dramatically alter public opinion. Lincoln found that out beginning on September 3rd when he received a wire from General Sherman stating that, “Atlanta is ours, and fairly won.” Sherman’s surprise victory was the catalytic event in Lincoln’s 1864 re-election two months later.

Clearly history affords us examples of the malleability of public opinion. And surely all three of these conflicts (Civil War, Vietnam, Iraq) are unique unto themselves. And in Iraq the final chapter of conflict has not been preordained or predetermined. But we know that President Bush has shown an affinity for the 16th President and that so far he has taken a Lincolnesque stance on the question of a retreat from Iraq. The President also seems to possess a well defined and clear sense of right and wrong and demonstrates a big-picture outlook much like Lincoln’s. Bush recognizes Islamic extremists as a tyrannical force in the Arab countries and that the future of this entire region lies in the success or failure of the striving democratic republic of Iraq. In fifty years, if Iraq has developed into a stable democracy and other Arab nations follow suit, historians will be praising Bush for his fierce tenacity and resolve in the face of such aggressive public scrutiny. The comparisons with Lincoln will be profuse.

That of course may never happen either, but the similarities between Lincoln’s position in the summer of 1864 and President Bush’s current situation is palpable. And while it is difficult to predict what will happen, it is easy to imagine what Lincoln would do if he were here today. He would hold firm and would be persuaded by neither opinion polls nor shifting politicians. From what we have seen of President Bush’s character, neither will he. Now is the time in the nation’s capital where the weaker politicians who obsessively follow public opinion will be separated from the principled, capable and strong leaders that we so desperately need.

Rather than looking to draw disparaging connections between the Iraq and Vietnam conflicts, writers like Mueller and Rauch should go back even further. If they did, they would see what happened to the country, in a great time of need, when it fell into the hands of the weak and unprincipled leadership of Andrew Johnson.

Ultimately, making historical connections across time is a difficult thing to do. Determining the general qualities and characteristics that make up great leaders is not as challenging. The fact that Bush is following in the tradition of Lincoln in this war should calm the hearts of those who still believe in the dream of a democratic Iraq.


A graduate of both Georgetown University and the University of East Anglia, Richard Zielinski lives and works in Washington, DC and can be contacted at rhz678@gmail.com