A Good Day for Democrats? A Bad Day for Conservatives?

George C. Landrith

November 7th was a good day for Democrats. However, despite all the hoopla, it wasn’t an historic day. Since World War II, the party out of the White House has lost an average of 32 seats in the House and 6 seats in the Senate during the sixth year mid-term election of a two-term president. On November 7th, it appears the Democrats picked up 29 seats in the House and 6 seats in the Senate (a few races are still too close to call.) Despite all the crowing about the tidal wave of change, Democrats underperformed when compared to historical averages.

This was no 1994 – when Republicans won 54 House seats and 10 Senate seats. Even the then sitting Speaker of the House, Tom Foley (D-Wash.) lost. There is no question that Democrats are excited to have regained nominal control of the House of Representatives and a one-seat majority of the Senate. Likewise, Republicans can’t be happy to have lost slim control of Congress. But it wasn’t an historic day.

This year’s election may have been a bad day for Republicans, but it wasn’t a bad day for conservatives, despite a few prominent conservatives losing important races. First, Democrats did not run a campaign based on ideas or ideology. They ran against President Bush and for unspecified change. Their mantra was, “It’s time for change.” But they never told us what change they intended. Even in Iraq we don’t know what their plan is. Democrats capitalized on voter discontent, but they did not create a mandate because they didn’t run on any specific proposals.

This is in stark contrast to 1994 when Republicans ran for many, many months on a very clear set of legislative proposals detailed in the Contract with America. In 1994, the Republicans won almost double the number of seats that Democrats won in 2006 and the Republicans ran on a clear set of conservative principles. Thus, they won a mandate. But without a clear agenda, you cannot win a mandate.

Second, Republicans did not lose for being too conservative. They lost because as a party (not necessarily individually) they strayed from their bedrock principles. They spent too much – way too much. They didn’t do enough to stop illegal immigration. They had too many scandals. They didn’t pass a coherent energy policy to increase energy supplies and reduce costs. They didn’t do enough to confirm responsible judges who follow the law. The only issue they had to run on was tax cuts from three years ago.

Third, Democrats selected a number of candidates who were able to market themselves as moderate to conservative. For example, Harold Ford (D-Tenn.) spoke openly and frequently of his religious faith and of his friendship with the President. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) ran as a pro-gun and pro-life candidate. Jim Webb (D-Va.) ran as a pro-military and pro-gun candidate who opposes gay marriage. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) also ran as a pro-life and pro-gun candidate. Heath Shuler (D-NC), the former NFL quarterback bust, ran as a pro-gun and pro-life Christian evangelical. You get the point. Democrats did not win by saying, “We’re the party of Ted Kennedy, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank.” These liberal icons were hard to find the last several weeks of the election.

Democrats won on election day. But they did not win because America had suddenly become more liberal. America was rightly disappointed in the Republicans – not because they were too conservative – but because they were too unprincipled. Simply put, Republicans gave conservatives little to support and Democrats did a good job of hiding their liberal side and promoting their centrist and even conservative appearance.

All of this means that if Democrats hope to maintain their new found power, they must govern as moderate conservatives and not the wild-eyed liberals that they have been for the past 50 years. It also means that Republicans will not, and should not, regain favor with the voters unless as a party they return to their conservative principles. The elections in 2008 will likely hinge on whether the Republicans return to principled conservatism and whether the liberals who lead the Democratic party can hide their liberalism and maintain the appearance of moderation over the next two years.

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Mr. Landrith is a graduate of the University of Virginia School of Law, where he was Business Editor of the Virginia Journal of Law and Politics. He had a successful law practice in business and litigation. In 1994 and 1996, Mr. Landrith was a candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives from Virginia's Fifth Congressional District. He served on the Albemarle County School Board. Mr. Landrith is an adjunct professor at the George Mason School of Law. He is recognized as an authority on constitutional law and jurisprudence, federalism, global warming, and property rights.

george@ff.org